Globe & SAG Predix!

http://foryourspeculation.libsyn.com/episode-fifty-one-globe-sag-predix-2012

More detailed list to come soon!

New Podcast!

http://foryourspeculation.libsyn.com/episode-fifty-oscar-thoughts-2012

Finally!

Los Angeles Film Critics Association Predictions

Of the first week of major critics precursors, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) will go last on Friday, December 7. Here are my predictions!

Best Picture: The Master
(Runner-Up: Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Moonrise Kingdom, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director: Michael Haneke, Amour
(Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master)
Others to Consider: Ben Affleck, Argo; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
(Runner-Up: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Richard Gere, Arbitrage; John Hawkes, The Sessions; Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables; Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour; Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Lead Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
(Runner-Up: Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Others to Consider: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere; Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone; Greta Gerwig, Damsels in Distress/Frances Ha/Lola Versus; Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games/Silver Linings Playbook; Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Best Supporting Actor: Bryan Cranston, Argo
(Runner-Up: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Alan Arkin, Argo; Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook; James Gandolfini, Killing Them Softly/Not Fade Away/Zero Dark Thirty; John Goodman, Argo/Flight/Trouble with the Curve; Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master; Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike; Michael Peña, End of Watch; Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths; Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Master
(Runner-Up: Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises/Les Miserables)
Others to Consider: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister's Sister; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Sally Field, Lincoln; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Isabelle Huppert, Amour; Kelly Reilly, Flight; Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
(Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master)
Others to Consider: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, The Sessions, Seven Psychopaths, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Cinematography: The Master
(Runner-Up: Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Others to Consider: Amour, Anna Karenina, Argo, Cloud Atlas, Django Unchained, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Production Design: Les Miserables
(Runner-Up: Anna Karenina)
Others to Consider: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Cloud Atlas, Django Unchained, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, A Royal Affair, Skyfall

Best Music: Jonny Greenwood, The Master
(Runner-Up: Alexandre Desplat, Argo/Moonrise Kingdom/Rise of the Guardians/Rust and Bone/Zero Dark Thirty)
Others to Consider: Amour, Anna Karenina, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Brave, Cloud Atlas, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, Lincoln, On the Road, Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall

Best Foreign-Language Film: Amour
(Runner-Up: The Intouchables)

Best Non-Fiction Film: Searching for Sugar Man
(Runner-Up: The Central Park Five)

Best Animated Film: Brave
(Runner-Up: Frankenweenie)

New Generation Award: Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Others to Consider: Ava DuVernay and Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere

National Board of Review Predictions

The National Board of Review (NBR) are usually the first group to hand out awards, but this year, they will be second, as we won't see their winners until Wednesday, December 5. Here are my predictions for this group.

Best Picture: Argo

The Top 10:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director: Ben Affleck, Argo
Best Debut Director: Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Lead Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games and Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: John Goodman, Argo, Flight and Trouble with the Curve
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises and Les Miserables
Best Breakthrough Actor: Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best Breakthrough Actress: Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Spotlight Award: Matthew McConaughey, Bernie, Killer Joe, Magic Mike and The Paperboy
Best Ensemble: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Original Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo

Best Animated Feature: Frankenweenie
Best Documentary: The Central Park Five
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Freedom of Expression Award: Promised Land
Special Achievement in Filmmaking: Andy and Lana Wachowski and Tom Tkywer, Cloud Atlas

Top 10 Independent Films:
Arbitrage
Bernie
Damsels in Distress
Hello, I Must Be Going
Killer Joe
Middle of Nowhere
Quartet
Safety Not Guaranteed
The Sessions
Your Sister's Sister

Top 5 Documentaries:
The House I Live In
Maria Abramovic: The Artist Is Present
The Queen of Versailles
Searching for Sugar Man
West of Memphis

Top 5 Foreign Films:
Caesar Must Die, Italy
The Intouchables, France
No, Chile
A Royal Affair, Denmark
Rust and Bone, France

New York Film Critics Circle Predictions

The New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) will be the first major critics awards to be unveiled on Monday, December 3rd. Here are my predictions!

Best Film: The Master
(Runner-Up: Amour)
Others to Consider: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

Best First Film: Beasts of the Southern Wild
(Runner-Up: The Sessions)
Others to Consider: Arbitrage, Hitchcock, A Late Quartet, Not Fade Away, Quartet, Safety Not Guaranteed, Sleepwalk With Me

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
(Runner-Up: Michael Haneke, Amour)
Others to Consider: Ben Affleck, Argo; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Lead Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
(Runner-Up: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Richard Gere, Arbitrage; John Hawkes, The Sessions; Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour; Denzel Washington, Flight

Best Lead Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
(Runner-Up: Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Others to Consider: Linda Cardellini, Return; Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere; Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone; Greta Gerwig, Damsels in Distress/Frances Ha/Lola Versus; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going; Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
(Runner-Up: Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master)
Others to Consider: Alan Arkin, Argo; Bryan Cranston, Argo; Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained; James Gandolfini, Killing Them Softly/Not Fade Away/Zero Dark Thirty; John Goodman, Argo/Flight/Trouble with the Curve; Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike; David Strathairn, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt, The Sessions
(Runner-Up: Sally Field, Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Amy Adams, The Master; Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Pauline Collins, Quartet; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises/Les Miserables; Isabelle Huppert, Amour; Kelly Reilly, Flight; Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
(Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master)
Others to Consider: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Moonrise Kingdom, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Cinematography: The Master
(Runner-Up: Lincoln)
Others to Consider: Amour, Anna Karenina, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Cloud Atlas, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

Oscar Charts...Week 1

Have not done these in forever, but November is here! Oscar season is just a few weeks from kicking into full gear! Celebrations!

Best Picture:
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Les Miserables 
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. The Master
7. Zero Dark Thirty
********************************
8. Life of Pi
9. Hitchcock
10. Amour
11. Moonrise Kingdom
12. The Sessions
13. Django Unchained
14. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
15. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

 Best Director:
1. Ben Affleck, Argo
2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
5. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
**********************************
6. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
7. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
8. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
11. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
12. Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
13. Sacha Gervasi, Hitchcock
14. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
15. Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski, Cloud Atlas

Best Lead Actor:
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
3. John Hawkes, The Sessions
4. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
5. Denzel Washington, Flight
*****************************
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
8. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
9. Ben Affleck, Argo
10. Richard Gere, Arbitrage

Best Lead Actress:
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
5. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
*******************************************
6. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
8. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
9. Maggie Smith, Quartet
10. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel    

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
2. Alan Arkin, Argo
3. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
5. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
****************************************
6. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
7. Bryan Cranston, Argo
8. John Goodman, Flight
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions
11. Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower 
12. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables
13. David Strathairn, Lincoln
14. Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
15. Aaron Tveit, Les Miserables
16. John Goodman, Argo 
17. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
18. Tom Wilkinson, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
19. Garrett Hedlund, On the Road
20. James Gandolfini, Zero Dark Thirty/Not Fade Away/Killing Them Softly

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
*********************************
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
9. Pauline Collins, Quartet
10. Kelly Reilly, Flight
11. Judi Dench, Skyfall
12. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
13. Alicia Vikander, Anna Karenina
14. Isabelle Huppert, Amour
15. Rosemarie DeWitt, Promised Land
16. Ann Dowd, Compliance
17. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
18. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson
19. Frances McDormand, Promised Land
20. Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on Hudson 

Final Emmy Predictions

No time for commentary (maybe later), but here are my rankings of what will win tonight.

Drama Series:
1. Mad Men
2. Downton Abbey
3. Homeland
4. Breaking Bad
5. Game of Thrones
6. Boardwalk Empire

Lead Actor-Drama:
1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
2. Damian Lewis, Homeland
3. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
4. Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
5. Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey
6. Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Lead Actress-Drama:
1. Claire Danes, Homeland
2. Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
3. Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
4. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
5. Kathy Bates, Harry's Law
6. Glenn Close, Damages

Supporting Actor-Drama:
1. Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
2. Jared Harris, Mad Men
3. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
4. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
5. Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
6. Jim Carter, Downton Abbey

Supporting Actress-Drama:
1. Joanne Froggat, Downton Abbey
2. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
3. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
5. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
6. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

Writing-Drama:
1. Downton Abbey "Episode Seven (Christmas Special)"
2. Homeland "Pilot"
3. Mad Men "The Other Woman"
4. Mad Men "Far Away Places"
5. Mad Men "Commissions and Fees"

Directing-Drama:
1. Homeland "Pilot"
2. Breaking Bad "Face Off"
3. Boardwalk Empire "To the Lost"
4. Mad Men "The Other Woman"
5. Downton Abbey "Episode Seven (Christmas Special)"

Comedy Series:
1. Modern Family
2. The Big Bang Theory
3. 30 Rock
4. Girls
5. Curb Your Enthusiasm
6. Veep

Lead Actor-Comedy:
1. Don Cheadle, House of Lies
2. Louis C.K., Louie
3. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
4. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
5. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
6. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Lead Actress-Comedy:
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
2. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
3. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
4. Lena Dunham, Girls
5. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
6. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
7. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Supporting Actor-Comedy:
1. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
2. Max Greenfield, New Girl
3. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
4. Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
5. Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live
6. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Supporting Actress-Comedy:
1. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
2. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
3. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
4. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
5. Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
6. Merrit Wever, Nurse Jackie

Writing-Comedy:
1. Girls "Pilot"
2. Louie "Pregnant"
3. Parks and Recreation "Win, Lose or Draw"
4. Community "Remedial Chaos Theory"
5. Parks and Recreation "The Debate"

Directing-Comedy:
1. Louie "Duckling"
2. Modern Family "Baby on Board"
3. Curb Your Enthusiasm "Palestinian Chicken"
4. Girls "She Did"
5. New Girl "Pilot"
6. Modern Family "Virgin Territory"

TV Movie/Miniseries:
1. Game Change
2. American Horror Story
3. Hatfields & McCoys
4. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
5. Hemingway & Gelhorn
6. Luther

Lead Actor-M/M:
1. Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gelhorn
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
3. Woody Harrelson, Game Change
4. Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys
5. Idris Elba, Luther
6. Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys

Lead Actress-M/M:
1. Julianne Moore, Game Change
2. Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gelhorn
3. Connie Britton, American Horror Story
4. Ashley Judd, Missing
5. Emma Thompson, The Song of Lunch

Supporting Actor-M/M:
1. Ed Harris, Game Change
2. Martin Freeman, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
3. Denis O'Hare, American Horror Story
4. David Strathairn, Hemingway & Gelhorn
5. Tom Berenger, Hatfields & McCoys

Supporting Actress-M/M:
1. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
2. Mare Winningham, Hatfields & McCoys
3. Judy Davis, Page Eight
4. Sarah Paulson, Game Change
5. Frances Conroy, American Horror Story

Writing-M/M:
1. Game Change
2. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
3. Hatfields & McCoys
4. The Hour
5. Luther

Directing-M/M:
1. Game Change
2. Hatfields & McCoys
3. Hemingway & Gelhorn
4. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
5. Luther

Variety Series:
1. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
2. The Colbert Report
3. Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
4. Saturday Night Live
5. Jimmy Kimmel Live!
6. Real Time with Bill Maher

Writing-Variety Special:
1. Louis C.K.: Live at the Beacon Theater
2. The 65th Annual Tony Awards
3. The Kennedy Center Honors
4. The 84th Annual Academy Awards
5. Betty White's 90th Birthday: A Tribute

Directing-Variety Special:
1. The 65th Annual Tony Awards
2. The 84th Annual Academy Awards
3. Louis C.K.: Live at the Beacon Theater
4. New York City Ballet George Balanchine's The Nutcracker
5. The 54th Annual Grammy Awards

Reality-Competition Series:
1. The Amazing Race
2. So You Think You Can Dance
3. The Voice
4. Top Chef
5. Project Runway
6. Dancing with the Stars

Reality Host:
1. Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers
2. Cat Deely, So You Think You Can Dance
3. Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars
4. Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race
5. Ryan Seacrest, American Idol