Grammy Predictions 2012

Record of the Year:
1. Adele "Rolling in the Deep"
2. Katy Perry "Firework"
3. Bruno Mars "Grenade"
4. Mumford & Sons "The Cave"
5. Bon Iver "Holocene"

Album of the Year:
1. 21, Adele
2. Wasting Light, Foo Fighters
3. Born This Way, Lady Gaga
4. Doo-Wops & Hooligans, Bruno Mars
5. Loud, Rihanna

Song of the Year:
1. "Rolling the Deep"
2. "The Cave"
3. "Holocene"
4. "All of the Lights"
5. "Grenade"

New Artist:
1. Bon Iver
2. Nicki Minaj
3. The Band Perry
4. Skrillex
5. J. Cole

Pop Solo Performance:
1. Adele "Someone Like You"
2. Katy Perry "Firework"
3. Bruno Mars "Grenade"
4. Lady Gaga "You and I"
5. Pink "Fucking Perfect"

Pop Duo/Group Performance:
1. Tony Bennett & Amy Winehouse "Body and Soul"
2. Maroon 5 & Christina Aguilera "Moves Like Jagger"
3. Foster the People "Pumped Up Kicks"
4. Coldplay "Paradise"
5. The Black Keys "Dearest"


Pop Album of the Year:
1. 21, Adele
2. Born This Way, Lady Gaga
3. Doo-Wops & Hooligans, Bruno Mars
4. Loud, Rihanna
5. The Lady Killer, Cee-Lo Green

Dance Recording:
1. Robyn "Call Your Girlfriend"
2. Skrillex "Scary Monsters And Nice Sprites"
3. Duck Sauce "Barbra Streisand"
4. David Guetta & Avicii "Sunshine"
5. Deadmau5 & Greta Svabo Bech "Raise Your Weapon"
6. Swedish House Mafia "Save the World"

Dance Album:
1. Body Talk, Pt. 3, Robyn
2. Scary Monsters And Nice Sprites, Skrillex
3. Nothing But the Beat, David Guetta
4. 4x4=12, Deadmau5
5. Zonoscope, Cut/Copy

Traditional Pop Vocal Album:
1. Duets II, Tony Bennett
2. What Matters Most - Barbra Streisand Sings The Lyrics Of Alan And Marilyn Bergman, Barbra Streisand
3. The Gift, Susan Boyle
4. In Concert on Broadway, Harry Connick Jr.
5. Music Is Better Than Words, Seth MacFarlane

Rock Performance and Rock Song:
1. Mumford & Sons "The Cave"
2. Foo Fighters "Walk"
3. Radiohead "Lotus Flower"
4. Coldplay "Every Teardrop is a Waterfall"
5. The Decemberists "Down by the Water"

Rock Album:
1. Wasting Light, Foo Fighters
2. The Whole Love, Wilco
3. Rock 'N' Roll Party Honoring Les Paul, Jeff Beck
4. I'm With You, Red Hot Chili Peppers
5. Come Around Sundown, Kings of Leon

Alternative Music Album
1. Bon Iver, Bon Iver
2. The King of Limbs, Radiohead
3. Torches, Foster the People
4. Codes and Keys, Death Cab for Cutie
5. Circuital, My Morning Jacket

R&B Performance:
1. Ledisi "Pieces of Me"
2. Corinne Bailey Rae "Is This Love"
3. Charlie Wilson "You Are"
4. Kelly Price & Stokley "Not My Daddy"
5. Marsha Ambrosius "Far Away"

Traditional R&B Performance:
1. Cee-Lo Green and Melanie Fiona "Fool for You"
2. Betty Wright & The Roots "Surrender"
3. Raphael Saadiq "Good Man"
4. Eric Benet "Sometimes I Cry"
5. R. Kelly "Radio Message"

R&B Song:
1. "Fool for You"
2. "Pieces of Me"
3. "You Are"
4. "Far Away"
5. "Not My Daddy"

R&B Album:
1. Pieces of Me, Ledisi
2. F.A.M.E., Chris Brown
3. Kelly, Kelly Price
4. Second Chance, El DeBarge
5. Love Letter, R. Kelly

Rap Performance:
1. Jay-Z & Kanye West "Otis"
2. Nicki Minaj & Drake "Moment 4 Life"
3. Chris Brown, Lil Wayne & Busta Rhymes "Look At Me Now"
4. Lupe Fiasco "The Show Goes On"
5. Wiz Khalifa "Black and Yellow"

Rap/Sung Collaboration:
1. Kanye West, Rihanna, Kid Cudi & Fergie "All of the Lights"
2. Dr. Dre, Eminem & Skylar Grey "I Need a Doctor"
3. Rihanna & Drake "What's My Name"
4. Beyoncé & André 3000 "Party"
5. Kelly Rowland & Lil Wayne "Motivation"
6. DJ Khaled, Drake, Rick Ross & Lil Wayne "I'm On One"

Rap Song:
1. "All of the Lights"
2. "Otis"
3. "I Need a Doctor"
4. "The Show Goes On"
5. "Look At Me Now"
6. "Black and Yellow"

Rap Album:
1. Watch the Throne, Jay-Z and Kanye West
2. Pink Friday, Nicki Minaj
3. My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy, Kanye West
4. Lasers, Lupe Fiasco
5. Tha Charter IV, Lil' Wayne

Country Solo Performance:
1. Blake Shelton "Honey Bee"
2. Jason Aldean "Dirt Road Anthem"
3. Taylor Swift "Mean"
4. Carrie Underwood "Mama's Song"
5. Martina McBride "I'm Gonna Love You Through It"

Country Duo/Group Performance:
1. Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson "Don't You Wanna Stay"
2. Thompson Square "Are You Gonna Kiss Me Or Not"
3. The Civil Wars "Barton Hollow"
4. Kenny Chesney Featuring Grace Potter "You and Tequila"

Country Song:
1. "God Gave Me You"
2. "Are You Gonna Kiss Me Or Not"
3. "Threaten Me With Heaven"
4. "Mean"
5. "Just Fishin'"

Country Album:
1. My Kinda Party, Jason Aldean
2. Speak Now, Taylor Swift
3. Red River Blue, Blake Shelton
4. Own the Night, Lady Antebellum
5. Here For A Good Time, George Strait
6. Chief, Eric Church

Spoken Word Album (Includes Poetry, Audio Books & Story Telling):
1. If You Ask Me (And Of Course You Won't), Betty White
2. Bossypants, Tina Fey
3. Fab Fan Memories - The Beatles Bond, Various Artist
4. Hamlet, Dan Donohue & Various Artists - Oregon Shakespeare Festival
5. The Mask of Zorro, Val Kilmer and Cast

Comedy Album:
1. Hilarious, Louis C.K.
2. Finest Hour, Patton Oswalt
3. Alpocalypse, "Weird Al" Yankovic
4. Turtleneck & Chain, The Lonely Island
5. Kathy Griffin: 50 & Not Pregnant, Kathy Griffin

Musical Theater Album:
1. The Book of Mormon
2. Anything Goes
3. How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Compilation Soundtrack For Visual Media:
1. Burlesque, Christina Aguilera
2. Tangled, Various Artists
3. Boardwalk Empire Vol. 1, Various Artists
4. Glee Vol. 4, Various Artists
5. True Blood Vol. 3, Various Artists

Score Soundtrack For Visual Media:
1. Black Swan, Clint Mansell
2. Tron: Legacy, Daft Punk
3. The King's Speech, Alexandre Desplat
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Alexandre Desplat
5. The Shrine, Ryan Shore

Song Written For Visual Media:
1. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"
2. "I See the Light"
3. "So Long"
4. "Where The River Goes"
5. "Christmastime Is Killing Us"
6. "Born to Be Somebody"

Producer Of The Year, Non-Classical:
1. Paul Epworth
2. The Smeezingtons
3. Butch Vig
4. Ryan Tedder
5. Danger Mouse

Remixed Recording, Non-Classical:
1. Cinema (Skrillex Remix)
2. End Of Line (Photek Remix)
3. Only Girl (In The World) (Rosabel Club Mix)
4. Rope (Deadmau5 Mix)
5. Collide (Afrojack Remix)

Short Form Music Video:
1. Adele "Rolling in the Deep"
2. Radiohead "Lotus Flower"
3. Skrillex "First Of The Year (Equinox)"
4. OK Go "All Is Not Lost"
5. "Weird Al" Yankovic "Perform This Way"
6. Memory Tapes "Yes I Know"

Long Form Music Video:
1. Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels Of A Tribe Called Quest, A Tribe Called Quest
2. Foo Fighters: Back And Forth, Foo Fighters
3. I Am...World Tour, Beyonce
4. Nine Types Of Light, TV on the Radio
5. Talihina Sky: The Story Of Kings Of Leon, Kings of Leon

New York Film Critics Circle Go First

We have 8 days until the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) yell "FIRST!" over the National Board of Review (NBR), which you know means it's time for some predictions.

Best Picture:
The Tree of Life
(Runners-Up: The Artist, Shame, Drive)

Best Director:
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
(Runners-Up: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Steve McQueen, Shame)

Best Lead Actor:
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
(Runners-Up: Michael Fassbender, Shame; Ryan Gosling, Drive/The Ides of March; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

Best Lead Actress:
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
(Runners-Up: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Viola Davis, The Help; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur)

Best Supporting Actor:
Albert Brooks, Drive
(Runners-Up: Christopher Plummer, Beginners; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris)

Best Supporting Actress:
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
(Runners-Up: Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris; Carey Mulligan, Drive/Shame; Octavia Spencer, The Help)

Best Screenplay:
The Artist
(Runners-Up: Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, Young Adult)

Best Cinematography:
The Tree of Life
(Runners-Up: The Artist, Drive, Shame)

Best Animated Film:
The Adventures of Tin-Tin
(Runner-Up: Rango)

Best Non-Fiction Film:
Senna
(Runners-Up: Bill Cunningham New York; Project Nim; Pina)

Best Foreign Film:
A Separation
(Runners-Up: Miss Bala, The Skin I Inhabit)

Best First Film:
Martha Marcy May Marlene
(Runners-Up: Pariah, Coriolanus, Higher Ground)

September Oscar Predictions

I'm really not feeling doing the chart right now, so I'll just post my current Oscar predictions. I did these before the Telluride and Venice Film Festivals, so most of these could go down in flames because of how the films are received there. We'll see.

Best Picture:
The Artist
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Steven Spielberg, War Horse

Best Lead Actor:
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Lead Actress:
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
John Goodman, The Artist
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris

Best Supporting Actress:
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Evan Rachel Wood, The Ides of March
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay:
The Artist
Like Crazy
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life

Best Adapted Screenplay:
A Dangerous Method
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
War Horse

Best Art Direction:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Cinematography:
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Costume Design:
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Best Film Editing:
The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Best Makeup:
The Artist
A Dangerous Method
My Week With Marilyn

Best Original Score:
The Artist
A Dangerous Method
The Muppets
Rango
War Horse

Best Original Song:
The Help
The Muppets Movie
The Muppets Movie
We Bought a Zoo
Winnie-the-Pooh

Best Sound Mixing:
Captain America: The First Avenger
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: The Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Sound Editing:
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: The Dark of the Moon
War Horse

Best Visual Effects:
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
Transformers: The Dark of the Moon

2011 Oscar Charts: Week One

It's pretty much guess work right now, but here's what I'm currently thinking for Oscar nominations. As usual, 3 of these will be right next January.

Best Picture:
1. War Horse (Director: Steven Spielberg)
2. J. Edgar (Director: Clint Eastwood)
3. The Descendants (Director: Alexander Payne)
4. Midnight in Paris (Director: Woody Allen)
5. A Dangerous Method (Director: David Cronenberg)
6. The Help (Director: Tate Taylor)
7. The Tree of Life (Director: Terrence Malick)
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8. The Ides of March (Director: George Clooney)
9. The Artist (Director: Michael Hazanavicius)
10. Hugo (Director: Martin Scorsese)
11. Super 8 (Director: J.J. Abrams)
12. Martha Marcy May Marlene (Director: Sean Durkin)
13. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Director: Tomas Alfredson)
14. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Director: Stephen Daldry)
15. Carnage (Director: Roman Polanski)
16. The Iron Lady (Director: Phyllida Lloyd)
17. We Bought a Zoo (Director: Cameron Crowe)
18. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Director: David Fincher)
19. Like Crazy (Director: Drake Doremus)
20. My Week With Marilyn (Director: Simon Curtis)

Best Director:
1. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
2. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
3. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
4. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
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6. David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
7. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
8. George Clooney, The Ides of March
9. Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
10. Roman Polanski, Carnage
11. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
12. Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
13. Tate Taylor, The Help
14. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
15. J.J. Abrams, Super 8
16. Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
17. Phyllida Lloyd, The Iron Lady
18. Cameron Crowe, We Bought a Zoo
19. Drake Doremus, Like Crazy
20. Simon Curtis, My Week With Marilyn

Best Lead Actor:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
3. Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
4. Jean DuJardin, The Artist
5. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
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6. Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
7. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
8. Matt Damon, We Bought a Zoo
9. Anton Yelchin, Like Crazy
10. John C. Reilly, Carnage
11. Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
12. Paul Giamatti, Win Win
13. Woody Harrelson, Rampart
14. Demian Bichir, A Better Life
15. Jeremy Irvine, War Horse
16. Antonio Banderas, The Skin That I Inhabit
17. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
18. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
19. Christoph Waltz, Carnage
20. Daniel Craig, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Lead Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
3. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
4. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
5. Emma Stone, The Help
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6. Jodie Foster, Carnage
7. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
8. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
9. Andrea Riseborough, W.E.
10. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
11. Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
12. Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz
13. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
14. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
15. Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
16. Anne Hathaway, One Day
17. Scarlett Johansson, We Bought a Zoo
18. Viola Davis, The Help
19. Kate Winslet, Carnage
20. Charlotte Rampling, The Eye of the Storm

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
3. Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady
4. Niels Arestrup, War Horse
5. Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
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6. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
7. Ben Kingsley, Hugo
8. John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
9. Christoph Waltz, Carnage
10. Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
11. John C. Reilly, We Need to Talk About Kevin
12. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March
13. Josh Lucas, J. Edgar
14. Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk About Kevin
15. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball
16. Geoffrey Rush, The Eye of the Storm
17. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
18. Tom Hardy, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
19. John C. Reilly, Carnage
20. Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Marisa Tomei, Ides of March
4. Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs
5. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
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6. Kate Winslet, Carnage
7. Naomi Watts, J. Edgar
8. Emily Watson, War Horse
9. Judi Dench, My Week With Marilyn
10. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
11. Stephanie Szotak, We Bought a Zoo
12. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
13. Zoe Caldwell, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
14. Carey Mulligan, Shame
15. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
16. Judi Dench, J. Edgar
17. Anjelica Huston, 50/50
18. Andrea Riseborough, W.E.
19. Jodie Foster, Carnage
20. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Final and Full Emmy Predictions 2011!

Nominations are on Thursday and here are my final predictions for (almost) every category!

Best Drama Series:
1. Mad Men
2. The Good Wife
3. Boardwalk Empire
4. Game of Thrones
5. Justified
6. The Walking Dead
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7. Dexter
8. Friday Night Lights
9. The Killing
10. True Blood
11. Harry’s Law
12. Treme

Best Comedy Series:
1. Modern Family
2. 30 Rock
3. Glee
4. The Office
5. Hot in Cleveland
6. Parks and Recreation
********************************
7. The Big Bang Theory
8. Nurse Jackie
9. Louie
10. Community
11. The Big C
12. Raising Hope

Best TV Movie or Miniseries:
1. Mildred Pierce
2. Downton Abbey
3. Cinema Verite
4. Carlos
5. Too Big To Fail
6. Upstairs Downstairs
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7. The Sunset Limited
8. The Pillars of the Earth
9. The Kennedys
10. Taken From Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story

Best Lead Actor-Comedy:
1. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
2. Steve Carell, The Office
3. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
4. Louis C.K., Louie
5. Matthew Morrison, Glee
6. Rob Lowe, Parks and Recreation
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7. Joel McHale, Community
8. Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
9. William Shatner, Shit My Dad Says
10. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
11. Danny McBride, Eastbound & Down
12. George Segal, Retired at 35

Best Lead Actor-Drama:
1. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
2. Michael C. Hall, Dexter
3. Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
4. Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
5. Timothy Olyphant, Justified
6. William H. Macy, Shameless
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7. Hugh Laurie, House
8. Tom Selleck, Blue Bloods
9. Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
10. Sean Bean, Game of Thrones
11. Jeremy Irons, The Borgias
12. Andrew Lincoln, The Walking Dead

Best Lead Actor-M/M:
1. William Hurt, Too Big To Fail
2. Laurence Fishburne, Thurgood
3. Edgar Ramirez, Carlos
4. Samuel L. Jackson, The Sunset Limited
5. Tommy Lee Jones, The Sunset Limited
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6. Patrick Stewart, Macbeth
7. Ian McShane, The Pillars of the Earth
8. Idris Elba, Luther
9. Kenneth Branagh, Wallander
10. Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Study in Pink

Best Lead Actress-Comedy:
1. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
2. Laura Linney, The Big C
3. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
4. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
5. Toni Collette, United States of Tara
6. Courteney Cox, Cougar Town
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7. Lea Michele, Glee
8. Martha Plimpton, Raising Hope
9. Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
10. Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds
11. Patricia Heaton, The Middle
12. Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory

Best Lead Actress-Drama:
1. Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
2. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
3. Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
4. Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
5. Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
6. Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy
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7. Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
8. Mireille Enos, The Killing
9. January Jones, Mad Men
10. Melissa Leo, Treme
11. Emmy Rossum, Shameless
12. Anna Paquin, True Blood

Best Lead Actress-M/M:
1. Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
2. Diane Lane, Cinema Verite
3. Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey
4. Taraji P. Henson, Taken From Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story
5. Jean Marsh, Upstairs Downstairs
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6. Kate Fleetwood, Macbeth
7. Hayley Atwell, The Pillars of the Earth
8. Katie Holmes, The Kennedys
9. Jennifer Love Hewitt, The Client List
10. Emily VanCamp, Beyond the Blackboard

Best Supporting Actor-Comedy:
1. Chris Colfer, Glee
2. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
3. Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
4. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
5. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
6. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation
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7. Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother
8. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
9. Oliver Platt, The Big C
10. Danny Pudi, Community
11. Mike O’Malley, Glee
12. Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation

Best Supporting Actor-Drama:
1. John Slattery, Mad Men
2. Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
3. Josh Charles, The Good Wife
4. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
5. Chris Noth, The Good Wife
6. Michael Shannon, Boardwalk Empire
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7. Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age
8. Michael Pitt, Boardwalk Empire
9. Brent Sexton, The Killing
10. Walton Goggins, Justified
11. Irrfan Kahn, In Treatment
12. John Noble, Fringe

Best Supporting Actor-M/M:
1. Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce
2. James Gandolfini, Cinema Verite
3. Paul Giamatti, Too Big to Fail
4. Tim Robbins, Cinema Verite
5. Tom Wilkinson, The Kennedys
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6. Donald Sutherland, The Pillars of the Earth
7. James Woods, Too Big to Fail
8. Brian F. O’Byrne, Mildred Pierce
9. Terry O’Quinn, Taken From Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story
10. Martin Freeman, Sherlock: A Study in Pink

Best Supporting Actress-Comedy:
1. Jane Lynch, Glee
2. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
3. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
4. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
5. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
6. Wendie Malick, Hot in Cleveland
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7. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
8. Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
9. Busy Philipps, Cougar Town
10. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
11. Alison Brie, Community
12. Jessica Walter, Retired at 35

Best Supporting Actress-Drama:
1. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
2. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
3. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
4. Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
5. Margo Martindale, Justified
6. Kiernan Shipka, Mad Men
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7. Sharon Gless, Burn Notice
8. Debra Winger, In Treatment
9. Michelle Forbes, The Killing
10. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
11. Amy Ryan, In Treatment
12. Khandi Alexander, Treme

Best Supporting Actress-M/M:
1. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
2. Betty White, The Lost Valentine
3. Eileen Atkins, Upstairs Downstairs
4. Melissa Leo, Mildred Pierce
5. Evan Rachel Wood, Mildred Pierce
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6. Mare Winningham, Mildred Pierce
7. Cynthia Nixon, Too Big to Fail
8. Kathy Baker, Too Big to Fail
9. Ruth Wilson, Luther
10. Morgan Turner, Mildred Pierce

Best Guest Actor-Comedy:
1. Carl Reiner, Hot in Cleveland
2. John Slattery, 30 Rock
3. Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
4. John Lithgow, How I Met Your Mother
5. Paul Giamatti, 30 Rock
6. Darren Criss, Glee
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7. Nathan Lane, Modern Family
8. Matt Damon, 30 Rock
9. Tim Conway, Hot in Cleveland
10. Ken Howard, 30 Rock
11. John Stamos, Glee
12. Jon Hamm, 30 Rock

Best Guest Actor-Drama:
1. Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
2. Jeremy Irons, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
3. Robert Morse, Mad Men
4. Bob Newhart, NCIS
5. Hal Holbrook, Sons of Anarchy
6. Mark Moses, Mad Men
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7. Dallas Roberts, The Good Wife
8. Jonny Lee Miller, Dexter
9. Peter Weller, Dexter
10. John Larroquette, White Collar
11. Burt Reynolds, Burn Notice
12. Henry Winkler, Royal Pains

Best Guest Actress-Comedy:
1. Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
2. Cloris Leachman, Raising Hope
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee
4. Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live
5. Megan Mullally, Parks and Recreation
6. Dot-Marie Jones, Glee
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7. Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live
8. Sherri Shepherd, 30 Rock
9. Cynthia Nixon, The Big C
10. Jessica Walter, The Big Bang Theory
11. Mary Tyler Moore, Hot in Cleveland
12. Carol Burnett, Glee

Best Guest Actress-Drama:
1. Shohreh Aghdashloo, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
2. Ellen Burstyn, Big Love
3. Gretchen Mol, Boardwalk Empire
4. Julia Stiles, Dexter
5. Debra Messing, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
6. Anika Noni Rose, The Good Wife
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7. Joan Cusack, Shameless
8. Randee Heller, Mad Men
9. Cara Buono, Mad Men
10. Sarah Silverman, The Good Wife
11. Elizabeth Reaser, The Good Wife
12. Elizabeth Mitchell, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

Best Writing-Comedy:
1. Tina Fey, Jack Burditt and Robert Carlock, 30 Rock “100”
2. Steve Levitan and Jeffrey Richman, Modern Family “Caught in the Act”
3. Greg Daniels, The Office “Goodbye Michael”
4. Louis C.K. Louie “Poker/Divorce”
5. Suzanne Martin, Hot in Cleveland “Pilot”
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6. Greg Garcia, Raising Hope “Pilot”
7. Darlene Hunt, The Big C “Pilot”
8. Abraham Higginbotham, Modern Family “The Kiss”
9. Danny Zuker, Christopher Lloyd and Ilana Wernick, Modern Family “Manny Get Your Gun/Dash, Flash, Crash”
10. Katie Dippold, Parks and Recreation “Fancy Party”

Best Directing-Comedy:
1. Beth McCarthy-Miller, 30 Rock “Live Show”
2. Ryan Murphy, Glee “The Substitute”
3. Michael Alan Spiller, Modern Family “Halloween”
4. Paul Feig, The Office “Goodbye Michael, Part 2”
5. Don Scardino, 30 Rock “100”
********************************
6. Bill Condon, The Big C “Pilot”
7. Steve Levitan, Modern Family “See You Next Fall”
8. Joe Russo, Community “A Fistful of Paintballs”
9. James Burrows, Mike & Molly “Victoria’s Birthday”
10. Steve Buscemi, Nurse Jackie “Game On”

Best Writing-Drama:
1. Matthew Weiner, Mad Men “The Suitcase”
2. Terence Winter, Boardwalk Empire “A Return to Normalcy”
3. Jason Katims, Friday Night Lights “Always”
4. David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, Game of Thrones “Baelor”
5. Veena Sud, The Killing “Pilot”
********************************
6. Robert King and Michelle King, The Good Wife “VIP Treatment”
7. Brett Johnson, Matthew Weiner and Eric Johnson, Mad Men “Waldorf Stories”
8. Frank Darabont, The Walking Dead “Days Gone Bye”
9. Dahvi Waller and Matthew Weiner, Mad Men “The Beautiful Girls”
10. Elmore Leonard and Graham Yost, Justified “The Moonshine War”

Best Directing-Drama:
1. Martin Scorsese, Boardwalk Empire “Boardwalk Empire (Pilot)”
2. Alan Taylor, Game of Thrones “Baelor”
3. Frank Darabont, The Walking Dead “Days Gone Bye”
4. Tim Van Patten, Game of Thrones “Winter Is Coming (Pilot)”
5. Jennifer Getzinger, Mad Men “The Suitcase”
********************************
6. Bill D’Elia, Harry’s Law “Pilot”
7. Michael Waxman, Friday Night Lights “Always”
8. Robert King, The Good Wife “Closing Arguments”
9. Allen Coulter, Boardwalk Empire “Paris Green”
10. Patty Jenkins, The Killing “Pilot”

Best Writing-M/M:
David Seltzer, Cinema Verite
Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey
Todd Haynes and Jonathan Raymond, Mildred Pierce
Cormac McCarthy, The Sunset Limited
Peter Could, Too Big To Fail

Best Directing-M/M:
Olivier Assayas, Carlos
Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, Cinema Verite
Todd Haynes, Mildred Pierce
Tommy Lee Jones, The Sunset Limited
Curtis Hanson, Too Big To Fail

Best Variety Series:
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Real Time with Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live

Best Variety Special:
The Kennedy Center Honors
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden
The Pee-Wee Herman Show on Broadway
Ricky Gervais: Out of England 2 – The Stand-Up Special
Tina Fey: The 13th Annual Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor

Best Reality/Competition Program:
The Amazing Race
Dancing With the Stars
Project Runway
Top Chef
The Voice

Best Reality Program:
Antiques Roadshow
Deadliest Catch
Dirty Jobs
Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List
Season 25: Oprah Behind the Scenes
Undercover Boss

Best Reality Host:
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race
Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars
Heidi Klum, Project Runway
RuPaul Charles, RuPaul’s Drag Race
Jeff Probst, Survivor

Best Nonfiction Special:
Baseball: The Tenth Inning
If God is Willing and Da Creek Don’t Rise
The Promise: The Making of Darkness on the Edge of Town
Public Speaking
Waste Land

Best Nonfiction Series:
American Experience
American Masters
Pioneers of Television
30 for 30
Who Do You Think You Are?

Best Animated Program:
Archer
The Ricky Gervais Show
Robot Chicken: Star Wars Episode III
The Simpsons
South Park

Best Children’s Program:
Degrassi
Hannah Montana Forever
iCarly
Jonas L.A.
Wizards of Waverly Place

Best Children’s Program-Nonfiction:
I Can’t Do This But I CAN Do That: A Film for Families About Learning Differences
Nick News with Linda Ellerbee: Under the Influence: Kids of Alcoholics

Best Special Class Program:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
Rodgers and Hammerstein’s South Pacific (Live from Lincoln Center)
Sondheim! The Birthday Concert (Great Performances)
Thurgood
64th Annual Tony Awards

Best Special Class Program – Short-Format Live-Action Entertainment Program:
Childrens Hospital
Community: Dean Pelton’s Office Hours Webseries
The Daily Show Correspondents Explain
Super Bowl XLV Halftime Show
30 Rock: The Webisodes

Best Special Class Program – Short-format Nonfiction Programs:
Direct Effect
In Character With
Jay Leno’s Garage

Best Writing-Variety Special:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
The Kennedy Center Honors
Louis C.K.: Hilarious
Ricky Gervais: Out of England 2 – The Stand-Up Special
64th Annual Tony Awards

Best Writing-Variety Series:
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Real Time with Bill Maher
Saturday Night Live

Best Directing-Variety Special:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
The 53rd Annual Grammy Awards
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden
The Pee-Wee Herman Show on Broadway
64th Annual Tony Awards

Best Directing-Variety Series:
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Late Show with David Letterman
Saturday Night Live

Best Technical Direction-Special:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
53rd Annual Grammy Awards
The Kennedy Center Honors
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden
The Pee-Wee Herman Show on Broadway

Best Technical Direction-Series:
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Dancing with the Stars
Late Show with David Letterman
Saturday Night Live

Best Writing-Nonfiction Programming:
American Masters
Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations
Baseball: The Tenth Inning
Gettysburg
30 for 30

Best Directing-Nonfiction Programming:
The Amazing Race
Baseball: The Tenth Inning
If God is Willing and Da Creek Don’t Rise
Public Speaking
Waste Land

Best Lighting Design/Direction-Series:
American Idol
Conan
Dancing with the Stars
Lopez Tonight
Saturday Night Live

Best Lighting Design/Direction-Variety Special:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
53rd Annual Grammy Awards
The Kennedy Center Honors
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden
64th Annual Tony Awards

Best Music Direction:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
The Kennedy Center Honors
Rodgers and Hammerstein’s South Pacific (Live from Lincoln Center)
Sondheim! The Birthday Concert (Great Performances)
64th Annual Tony Awards

Best Cinematography-Multi-Camera:
The Big Bang Theory
Hot in Cleveland
How I Met Your Mother
Mike & Molly
30 Rock

Best Cinematography-Single-Camera:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
The Killing
Mad Men
The Walking Dead

Best Cinematography-M/M:
Carlos
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Cinematography-Reality:
The Amazing Race
Deadliest Catch
Dirty Jobs
Survivor
Top Chef

Best Cinematography-Nonfiction:
If God is Willing and Da Creek Don’t Rise
Public Speaking
Wartorn: 1861-2010
Waste Land
Whale Wars

Best Art Direction-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
The Pillars of the Earth
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Art Direction-Multi-Camera:
The Big Bang Theory
Hot in Cleveland
How I Met Your Mother
Mike & Molly

Best Art Direction-Single-Camera:
Boardwalk Empire
The Borgias
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
Modern Family

Best Art Direction-Variety:
83rd Annual Academy Awards
American Idol
Conan
The Kennedy Center Honors
Saturday Night Live

Best Costumes-Series:
Boardwalk Empire
Camelot
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
Spartacus: Gods of the Arena

Best Costumes-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Kennedys
Mildred Pierce
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Sound Mixing-Half Hour:
Hot in Cleveland
Modern Family
The Office
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock

Best Sound Mixing-Nonfiction:
The Amazing Race
Deadliest Catch
The Promise: The Making of Darkness on the Edge of Town
Public Speaking
The Voice

Best Sound Mixing-Variety:
54th Annual Grammy Awards
83rd Annual Academy Awards
American Idol
Dancing with the Stars
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden

Best Sound Mixing-M/M:
Carlos
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
The Pillars of the Earth
Too Big To Fail

Best Sound Mixing-Hour:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Glee
Mad Men
The Walking Dead

Best Editing-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
Too Big to Fail
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Single-Camera Editing-Drama:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Justified
Mad Men
The Walking Dead

Best Editing-Special:
AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Mike Nichols
The Kennedy Center Honors
Lady Gaga Presents The Monster Ball Tour: At Madison Square Garden
Louis C.K.: Hilarious
The Pee-Wee Herman Show on Broadway

Best Editing-Nonfiction Programming:
American Masters
Baseball: The Tenth Inning
Deadliest Catch
If God is Willing and Da Creek Don’t Rise
Public Speaking

Best Editing-Comedy:
Glee
Hot in Cleveland
Modern Family
The Office
30 Rock

Best Editing-Reality:
The Amazing Race
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
Intervention
Survivor
Top Chef

Best Sound Editing-Series:
Covert Affairs
Fringe
Game of Thrones
True Blood
The Walking Dead

Best Sound Editing-Nonfiction Programming:
The Amazing Race
Baseball: The Tenth Inning
Deadliest Catch
The Promise: The Making of Darkness on the Edge of Town
Survivor

Best Sound Editing-M/M:
Carlos
The Kennedys
Mildred Pierce
The Pillars of the Earth
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Special Visual Effects-M/M:
Burn Notice: The Fall of Sam Axe
The Pillars of the Earth

Best Special Visual Effects-Series:
Boardwalk Empire
The Event
Game of Thrones
No Ordinary Family
The Walking Dead

Best Prosthetic Makeup:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Glee
True Blood
The Walking Dead

Best Non-Prosthetic Makeup-M/M:
Cinema Verite
The Kennedys
Mildred Pierce
The Pillars of the Earth
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Non-Prosthetic Makeup-Single-Camera:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Mad Men
True Blood
The Walking Dead

Best Non-Prosthetic Makeup-Multi-Camera:
Better With You
Dancing with the Stars
Hot in Cleveland
How I Met Your Mother
Saturday Night Live

Best Music Composition-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
Too Big To Fail
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Music Composition-Series:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
The Killing
The Simpsons
The Walking Dead

Best Music and Lyrics:
Family Guy
Glee
Saturday Night Live
The Simpsons
Treme

Best Main Title Design:
Boardwalk Empire
Covert Affairs
Game of Thrones
Raising Hope
The Walking Dead

Best Main Title Theme:
Covert Affairs
Game of Thrones
The Killing
Raising Hope
The Walking Dead

Best Casting-Comedy:
Glee
Hot in Cleveland
Modern Family
Raising Hope
30 Rock

Best Casting-Drama:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Justified
Mad Men

Best Casting-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
Mildred Pierce
Too Big To Fail
Upstaris, Downstairs

Best Hairstyling-Single-Camera:
Boardwalk Empire
Game of Thrones
Glee
Mad Men
True Blood

Best Hairstyling-Multi-Camera:
Dancing with the Stars
Hot in Cleveland
The Pee-Wee Herman Show on Broadway
Saturday Night Live
30 Rock

Best Hairstyling-M/M:
Cinema Verite
Downton Abbey
The Kennedys
Mildred Pierce
Upstairs Downstairs

Best Choreography:
Dancing with the Stars
Dancing with the Stars
Glee
So You Think You Can Dance
So You Think You Can Dance

Best Stunt Coordination:
Burn Notice
Chuck
Covert Affairs
Game of Thrones
The Walking Dead

Best Voice-Over Performance:
Hank Azaria, The Simpsons
H. Jon Benjamin, Archer
Dan Castellaneta, The Simpsons
Seth Green, Robot Chicken
Kevin Kline, Bob’s Burgers

What Should Win?

And the companion to the predictions...what should win and what should have been nominated.

Best Picture:
What Should Win? The Kids Are All Right
What Should Have Been Nominated? Blue Valentine

Best Director:
Who Should Win? Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Who Should Have Been Nominated? Christopher Nolan, Inception

Best Lead Actor:
Who Should Win? James Franco, 127 Hours
Who Should Have Been Nominated? Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Best Lead Actress:
Who Should Win? Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Who Should Have Been Nominated? Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actor:
Who Should Win? Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Who Should Have Been Nominated? Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Best Supporting Actress:
Who Should Win? Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Who Should Have Been Nominated? Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

Best Original Screenplay:
What Should Win? The Kids Are All Right
What Should Have Been Nominated? Blue Valentine

Best Adapted Screenplay:
What Should Win? 127 Hours
What Should Have Been Nominated? The Ghost Writer

Best Art Direction:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? How to Train Your Dragon, The Social Network

Best Cinematography:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? 127 Hours, Blue Valentine

Best Costume Design:
What Should Win? The King's Speech
What Should Have Been Nominated? Kick-Ass, Black Swan

Best Film Editing:
What Should Win? 127 Hours
What Should Have Been Nominated? Inception, The Kids Are All Right

Best Makeup:
What Should Win? N/A
What Should Have Been Nominated? Black Swan, Kick-Ass

Best Original Score:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? The Ghost Writer, Blue Valentine

Best Original Song:
What Should Win? "I See the Light," Tangled
What Should Have Been Nominated? "Sticks & Stones," How to Train Your Dragon; "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque

Best Sound Mixing:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? Black Swan, 127 Hours

Best Sound Editing:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? How to Train Your Dragon, 127 Hours

Best Visual Effects:
What Should Win? Inception
What Should Have Been Nominated? Kick-Ass

Final Oscar Predictions 2010

The Academy Awards are this Sunday, which means it's that time of year, where you wait for Ted to speak up with his final predictions and thoughts. Here we go!

Best Picture:
1. The King's Speech
12 nominations (something a lot of films don't do, let alone a British period piece). The power of the Weinstein Company. Favorite to win at least Actor and Original Screenplay. Won the major guild awards (over The Social Network). At this point, it losing would be a pretty big upset.

2. The Social Network
If you had ask me a month ago, I would have said yes. But the tide turned. It's not even my favorite of the 10, but I still hope it upsets because it feels more like the Best Picture of 2010 than The King's Speech. Oh well.

3. Toy Story 3
If any film can overcome the top two, it will be this one. It's got a crazy enough fan base to do, especially since they're ranking them. It would be a win for the series and there's a real push for it. But it's still an animated movie.

4. The Fighter
It's been the underdog of the year, but it has yet to pick up significant steam to pull off the upset.

5. Inception
No director nomination means it's out, but lots of people are pissed that it might get the short end of the stick with wins (maybe only Visual Effects?). Perhaps The Dark Knight supporters will show their muscle here?

6. Black Swan
It definitely has passionate support, but with only five nominations (and no love for the other actresses or technical achievements), it probably won't be winning.

7. True Grit
The movie landed 10 nominations but even with that overall support, there's no real passion for it.

8. Winter's Bone
It's a dark, depressing drama with four overall nominations and no Best Director nomination. Not enough to win.

9. The Kids Are All Right
It's a comedy with four overall nominations and no Best Director nomination. Not enough to win.

10. 127 Hours
It was a slight surprise that it got in (although I got the 10 all correct). No Best Director nomination and not a lot of love overall.


Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
This will be the film's big award. Fincher has paid his dues and this is his second nomination. They try hard to honor directors with visions and it's hard to picture him not winning (even though he lose the DGA). Plus the last director winner who didn't seem to have such a hard time "directing" their movie was (arguably) Barry Levinson for Rain Man, so that should be enough for me to think that Hooper won't win.

2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
If they go crazy for The King's Speech, it could happen. But he couldn't even win at home with the BAFTAs. Yes, he won the DGA award, but so did Rob Marshall for Chicago and he still lost to Roman Polanski for The Pianist (although Fincher is no Polanski). Although I'm reminded of when Ron Howard beat Peter Jackson, Ridley Scott, Robert Altman and David Lynch back in 2001.

3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
If the two frontrunners split, Aronofsky will be the one to reap the rewards. It's the type of directing job that the directors branch will nominate, but won't give the win. But after stellar work with Requiem for a Dream, The Fountain, and The Wrestler, I'm glad he's here.

4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Russell got lucky to get in here, because his reputation in Hollywood is that of a prick. But he's played the game very well and this should help him make more interesting films in the future (more Three Kings and I Heart Huckabees and less of The Fighter).

5. Ethan and Joel Coen, True Grit
The Coens just won for No Country for Old Men two years ago. There's no movement to give another one this quickly.


Best Lead Actor:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Of the four acting categories, the easiest to call. Firth has pretty much won every precursor available (including some critic awards) and lost last year. He's in the Best Picture frontrunner, which will certainly help here (in the past decade, seven of the ten winners' films were up for Best Picture and one of them won). He's British, he's playing royalty, he suffers from a speech impediment. It's a done deal.

2. James Franco, 127 Hours
Had Firth won last year, Franco might have had a shot (unless they really wanted to reward Bridges). A very brave and somewhat uncomfortable performance to watch, he carried the entire film (enough so, that it even placed in Best Picture). That said, he's still a little on the younger side (32), and Oscar voters prefer them a tad more older in this category. Some might also think he'll have more chances in the future.

3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
If, somehow, Eisenberg wins, he would become the youngest winner in the category (he just turned 27). On top of that, the love for the film has fizzled out in the last month of the race and there's no urgency to reward the acting from The Social Network (witness the snub of the supporting actors and no wins from SAG).

4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
The nomination was the prize for Bardem. His performance was really great, the stuff actors love (dying of cancer!). But it was a very late contender, and while there's enough support for him to get nominated, he already has an Oscar (Supporting Actor for 2007's No Country for Old Men) and there's no rush to get him another one.

5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Bridges won last year, so a repeat win is very unlikely. Plus, last year he beat Colin Firth (both were deserving), so it's nice that he can stay out of Firth's way this time. There's also the John Wayne factor (The Duke won for this role, way back in 1969) and some older voters might stick with that performance as their favorite.


Best Lead Actress:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
If Oscar voters want to honor a hot young thing who gave a showy performance, this is it. This is Portman's second nomination (first in lead) and nothing has slowed her down yet. The only thing that might turn off voters is the genre (crazy ass thriller), but even so, this will be the best place to honor the film.

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
If Oscar voters want to honor a seasoned veteran who gave a subtle performance, this is it. Bening has lost three times in the past (and twice, famously, to Hilary Swank), but she's within some distance here. Still, I don't think the voters care if The Kids Are All Right goes home with one award, so I expect her to just enjoy the company of The Beatty when Portman wins.

3. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Thrilled that she made it in, especially when it looked like she might miss (although sad that Ryan Gosling wasn't so lucky). She probably doesn't have a huge amount of support to win, but what worries me is that she cut into some of Portman's votes.

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Second youngest nominee in this category (the record will always belong to Keisha Castle-Hughes), Lawrence defied a lot to get in. The movie peaked too early to win anything and even when it did win big, she missed (witness the wins at the Gotham Awards, but no Breakthrough win for her). This was a vote of confidence nod and maybe she'll be back in the future.

5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Very glad that she finally earned a spot back at the table. It's probably her most surprising performance in a long time. She'll get points for bringing the play to the screen, but the nomination is all she's getting.


Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
Bale's won almost all the precursor awards (minus BAFTA). It's been a long time coming, and it's performance that definitely deserves it. Hopefully that will mean he'll stop killing himself over his performances.

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Rush has won before (Best Actor for Shine in 1996), and he's usually so damn annoying with his over-the-top, scenery chewing complex. But he didn't do any of that in this one. If they REALLY love the film it could happen. But I think Bale is too strong of a frontrunner for that to happen.

3. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
This was supposed to be his, but he got lucky getting in because he could have missed. He makes it look easy, especially in this one. Glad that he finally got in (and he would have my vote), but better luck next time.

4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
Renner was really good and definitely the male standout in the film (Blake Lively was my favorite), but I think this was more of a support for him as an actor. After The Hurt Locker, we all can't wait to see more work from him. Plus the film missed in the top 10.

5. John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Hawkes got lucky to get in over other contenders (sorry Andrew Garfield *sniff), so the nomination is his reward. But it was a terrific performance.


Best Supporting Actress:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
She might have been over-the-top with her role (and, as of late, with her campaign), but she's won everything that she can (with the exception of the BAFTA because they have no idea who she is and didn't nominate her). On top of that, I don't think there is enough support to get another one of the ladies to win. What will be interesting is if The Fighter can pull off both supporting wins. The last time that happened was in 1986 with Michael Caine and Dianne Wiest for Hannah and Her Sisters). And another interesting statistic is that if both Leo and Bale win, it will be the first mother/son (characters) winners since 1989 when Daniel Day-Lewis and Brenda Fricker won for My Left Foot.

2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
She didn't do a whole lot, but other actresses have won for less. The BAFTA win (and more importantly, the speech) might have charmed enough voters who are not inclined to give Leo their vote. Plus, the movie might sweep her in (although Firth being the only acting win makes more sense).

3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Yes, Anna Paquin and Tatum O'Neal won when they were young, but I feel like they had more support (or their movies did) back then. Steinfeld as lost a lot of buzz since the Oscar nominations were announced. Still wouldn't be shocked.

4. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Weaver may have missed out on a SAG nomination, but she definitely has her fans. The film was probably too slight to pull out a win...but so was Pollock and Marcia Gay Harden snuck in there. Still Weaver's an unknown in Hollywood, so like Shohreh Aghdashloo and Sophie Okondeo before her, except her to have fun, not win and then get offered a lot of roles in great (and not-so-great) stuff.

5. Amy Adams, The Fighter
She was supposed to win something major to stop her co-star from winning, but it never happened. At best, Adams will steal some votes, but probably not enough for her to win or to prevent Leo from winning.


Best Original Screenplay:
1. The King's Speech
A Best Picture frontrunner, with no reasonable contender that can stop it. Most might be split between Inception and Kids to stop it from winning this. Plus, writer David Siedler's back story about overcoming his own stuttering has been making the rounds and will likely impress voters.

2. Inception
If enough people are angry over Christopher Nolan missing in the Best Picture lineup, he could upset here. He has the Writers Guild award, which could help (although The King's Speech wasn't eligible there). But it's still a head scratcher among some Academy members (you know the older voters didn't get it).

3. The Kids Are All Right
Any other year, this would have won. It's the light-hearted dramedy from Focus Features. Those always win here. But it lost momentum and it didn't win anything major.

4. The Fighter
It's a true story! But it can be a little annoying to some, especially those who are put off by the family aspect of it.

5. Another Year
Mike Leigh always gets in and never wins. And this one lost a tremendous amount of attention.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin's script was the MVP of the film (give or take Fincher's direction) and he hasn't lost anything yet for this one. If they want to honor great dialogue, here's where they start and end.

2. Toy Story 3
The most emotional entry of the five, it was a truly satisfying end to a fantastic trilogy. But Aaron Sorkin didn't write it.

3. True Grit
It's a Coen brothers script, so it has lots of great lines. But it's a remake and a lot of old Hollywood voters might hold that against it. Plus, Aaron Sorkin didn't write it.

4. 127 Hours
The script was good, but the true feat of the film was James Franco and Danny Boyle's direction. Plus, Aaron Sorkin didn't write it.

5. Winter's Bone
A really smart script, but Winter's Bone is probably going to go home empty handed. Plus, Aaron Sorkin didn't write it.


Best Animated Feature:
1. Toy Story 3
Done.

2. How to Train Your Dragon
It would be a huge upset if it happened. But it does have some support and if it wasn't for Toy Story 3, it would happen. Oh well.

3. The Illusionist
The Triplets of Belleville couldn't overcome Finding Nemo. So expect history to repeat itself, but it's a great that it got in.


Best Documentary Feature:
1. Inside Job
2. Exit Through the Gift Shop
3. Gasland
4. Waste Land
5. Restrepo
I could really see any of them win. Restrepo has a Hurt Locker vibe to it, Waste Land is supposed to be an interesting look at people who live in a garbage heap, Gasland is supposed to be about some insane things that are happening in our backyard and Exit Through the Gift Shop is Banksy's film on the culture of art (which really was a surprise nominee, given how stuffy this branch can be). But Inside Job has the gravitas and his been the frontrunner here for quite some time (especially since Waiting for "Superman" missed here).


Best Foreign Language Film:
1. In a Better World, Denmark
2. Incendies, Canada
3. Dogtooth, Greece
4. Biutiful, Mexico
5. Outside the Law, Algeria
The film to beat is the Golden Globe-winning In a Better World, but this category is notorious for upsets. Biutiful is probably the most known of the five, but it's such a downer and not the best work from Iñarritu. Outside the Law got a lot of flack for taking liberties with history, so it's also out. Incendies has received good notices, so wouldn't be surprised to see it win. Lastly, Dogtooth is apparently so bizarre, a win would be shocking. But so was it's nomination.


Best Art Direction:
1. The King's Speech
The set pieces in the palace, and in the grungy offices of the speech therapist, should be enough to cinch the win. If it's going to win Best Picture, it's going to need more wins under its belt.

2. Alice in Wonderland
Sometimes, "Best Art Direction" is really "Most Art Direction." If that's the case, this ugly looking thing wins. Also, every Tim Burton movie that gets nominated here (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, Sweeney Todd) wins.

3. Inception
This one is probably hurt by the visual effects. Although that didn't hurt Avatar last year either.

4. True Grit
In any other year, this one would be the easy pick. However, it seems rather simple compared to the rest of the nominees.

5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part One
Not much of an improvement over the last ones in terms of new set designs. They'll wait for the last one, if they want to honor the series.


Best Cinematography:
1. True Grit
They say the prettiest looking film, or the one that would make for a cool postcard picture wins this. If that's the case, look no further than this Western. In addition, Roger Deakins has yet to win here and after so many years of stellar work, it's his time.

2. The King's Speech
Or they could be lazy and give it to the Best Picture frontrunner? If the film wasn't so drab, I'd go for it.

3. Inception
Wally Pfister won the cinematographer's guild, but I don't think they're ready to honor cinematography that is so technically difficult. But they did go for Avatar last year.

4. Black Swan
Very good work from here, but it's another of those low-budget indies that was shot for cheap and some don't like that particular look.

5. The Social Network
Even with it being a favorite in other categories, I think this is the one category it's pretty much out of it.


Best Costume Design:
1. The King's Speech
A Best Picture frontrunner that won the Costume Designers Guild...but so did Alice and Helena Bonham Carter's costumes aren't very splashy.

2. Alice in Wonderland
Tim Burton's bizarre adaptation won the Costume Designers Guild...but so did King's Speech and it's ugly.

3. True Grit
Westerns offer lots of costumes and it's a time period they like...but it feels like those costumes have already been rewarded in the past.

4. I Am Love
Lots of people were happy that its contemporary costumes got in...but it's the film's only nomination and they don't honor contemporary work with the award (see The Devil Wears Prada).

5. The Tempest
Sandy Powell has won a few of these...but no one liked the movie and this is its only nod.


Best Film Editing:
1. The Social Network
Usually the film that wins this, wins Best Picture. But, often times it goes to the film with the best achievement. The Editors Guild went with this one, so I'll play it safe and say it wins here too.

2. The King's Speech
But this is the actual Best Picture frontrunner. Hmm. It would be such a lazy vote though, and I have to imagine that they won't be that lazy this year.

3. The Fighter
Boxing movies feature a lot of editing, so this one isn't out of it, if the other two split it.

4. Black Swan
You can't deny the edits made in this one, especially all the dance sequences. But it's probably too light of a subject to win this category.

5. 127 Hours
Many think this took Inception's spot (I still think that would have won this category over the two frontrunners). Plus, 127 Hours is looking like it's heading to no wins at all.


Best Makeup:
1. The Wolfman
Rick Baker dominates this category. Even when it's not a great movie. Plus he won for An American Werewolf in London which was the first film honored when they created this category.

2. Barney's Version
Paul Giamatti won the Globe, so there must be some support for the film. But it's old age makeup (pancake face!) and those don't usually win this category.

3. The Way Back
Apparently, it's minimal makeup (i.e. scars and wounds and such), so it's probably not flashy or showy enough to win. Plus the movie was a dud with critics and audiences.


Best Original Score:
1. The King's Speech
Multiple nominations for the composer? Check. Best Picture frontrunner? Check. BAFTA win? Check. Use of Beethoven in the film's climax? Check. Winner.

2. Inception
Hans Zimmer score might be the most memorable of the year, but there doesn't seem to be a rush to get him the win this year...unless they want Inception to get some more wins.

3. The Social Network
The work from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross already took home the Critic's Choice Award and Golden Globe. It was probably a bit of a miracle that they got nominated, considering their aversion to dual composers in recent years.

4. How to Train Your Dragon
John Powell's delightful music was perfect for the film, but there doesn't seem to be a movement to give the film a win. This being its only other nod might help voters who loved it but don't want to vote against Toy Story 3 in Animated Feature.

5. 127 Hours
This is probably the only one out of it. Too sparse.


Best Original Song:
1. "I See the Light," Tangled
Classic Disney. Classic Alan Menken (he even references himself). The movie was snubbed in Animated Feature.

2. "If I Rise," 127 Hours
If they don't give it this, it will go home empty-handed. But is there enough support to muster a win? Are they tired of A.R. Rahman (who just won two, two years ago)?

3. "We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
Multiple wins for Pixar finale? It's the weakest of the Toy Story theme songs ("You've Got a Friend In Me" and "When She Loved Me" where way better). Plus, does anyone remember how it was used in the film?

4. "Coming Home," Country Strong
Could surprise just because it was random that it got in in the first place. Gwyneth Paltrow didn't write the song, but she has more buzz around her now than she's had in a long while.


Best Sound Mixing:
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. True Grit
4. The King's Speech
5. Salt
Inception wins this because it was snubbed for Directing and Editing...although not even The Dark Knight could win this two years ago, and they might want to give more love to The Social Network.


Best Sound Editing:
1. Inception
2. Toy Story 3
3. True Grit
4. TRON: Legacy
5. Unstoppable
Inception wins this because it was snubbed for Directing and Editing...although I wouldn't be surprised to see Toy Story 3 win if they want it to get more than just Animated Feature.


Best Visual Effects:
1. Inception
Easy call. The city of Paris folded on top of itself. Then Joseph Gordon-Levitt had that fight in the hallway...in zero gravity.

2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part One
First time the series has been included here, but I doubt it will win because they'll likely honor it next year with the final installment.

3. Alice in Wonderland
Ugly. Visuals. But it made a lot of money. And there's a lot of visual effects. But they were ugly. Fugly, if you will.

4. Iron Man 2
The first one didn't win. And they didn't improve the effects like the second Spider-Man did when it won the category.

5. Hereafter
One tsunami. That was it.


Best Animated Short:
1. Madagascar, a Journey Diary
2. Day & Night
3. The Lost Thing
4. The Gruffalo
5. Let's Pollute
The last two are apparently too slight to win (although The Gruffalo has a a stellar voice cast, including Helen Bonham Carter), but ultimately, the voters here look at the animation work, which would give the edge to the French, Madagascar, a Journey Diary over Pixar's Day & Night.


Best Documentary Short:
1. The Warriors of Qiugang
2. Poster Girl
3. Strangers No More
4. Sun Come Up
5. Killing in the Name
The filmmakers of The Warriors of Qiugang won in this category before, so I'll just go with that. But this category is always tough to call (especially because there's no World War II entry). Poster Girl is about PTSD (timely!), Strangers No More features kids in Tel Aviv (kids!), Sun Come Up is about global warming (timely!) and Killing in the Name is about terrorism (timely!) Good luck.


Best Live Action Short:
1. Na Wewe
2. God of Love
3. The Confession
4. The Crush
5. Wish 143
None of these winning would surprise me. I went with the one that's supposed to be the most depressing...because that's what they like.