First Round of Oscar Predictions - 2010

Because I'm a crazy son of a bitch.

Best Picture:
Get Low (Director: Aaron Schneider, Sony Pictures Classic)
How Do You Know (Director: James L. Brooks, Columbia)
Inception (Director: Christopher Nolan, Warner Bros)
The Kids Are Alright (Director: Lisa Cholodenko, Focus Features)
Morning Glory (Director: Roger Mitchell, Paramount)
Rabbit Hole (Director: John Cameron Mitchell, Fox Searchlight)
The Special Relationship (Director: Richard Loncraine, BBC Films)
The Tempest (Director: Julie Taymor, Miramax Films)
Toy Story 3 (Director: Lee Unkrich, Pixar/Disney)
The Tree of Life (Director: Terrence Malick, Apparition)

Best Director:
James L. Brooks, How Do You Know
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are Alright
John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Best Lead Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception
Robert Duvall, Get Low
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jack Nicholson, How Do You Know
Dennis Quaid, The Special Relationship

Best Lead Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Rachel McAdams, Morning Glory
Hilary Swank, Betty Anne Waters
Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know

Best Supporting Actor:
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Inception
Anthony Hopkins, You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger
Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Michael Sheen, The Special Relationship
Forest Whitaker, My Own Love Song

Best Supporting Actress:
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Hope Davis, The Special Relationship
Kathryn Hahn, How Do You Know
Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Best Original Screenplay:
Get Low
How Do You Know
The Kids Are Alright
The Special Relationship
The Tree of Life

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Down and Dirty Pictures
Rabbit Hole
The Rum Diary
The Tempest
Toy Story 3


And what say I about the winners, a year in advance?

Best Picture:
How Do You Know (Director: James L. Brooks, Columbia)

Best Director:
Christopher Nolan, Inception

Best Lead Actor:
Robert Duvall, Get Low

Best Lead Actress:
Rachel McAdams, Morning Glory

Best Supporting Actor:
Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Best Supporting Actress:
Kathryn Hahn, How Do You Know

Best Original Screenplay:
How Do You Know

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Rabbit Hole

Rank 'Em!

Taking a page from Kris's idea on InContention of ranking all the nominees. Here goes nothing.

1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. A Single Man
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. An Education
6. The Hurt Locker
7. The Lovely Bones
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox
9. Up
10. Star Trek
11. Bright Star
12. Avatar
13. Crazy Heart
14. District 9
15. A Serious Man
16. The Messenger
17. Invictus
18. The Young Victoria
19. Julie & Julia
20. Nine
21. The Last Station
22. In the Loop
23. The Blind Side

Plug, Plug, Plug

I had the special privilege of being a guest on the TV on the Internet podcast this week. It's up here.

Thanks to Todd for inviting me!

Oscar Winner Predictions

Here we go, only a few more days until the big night. My final predictions (which I know you have been dying to read)! No commentary (go visit the podcast for that), just who I think will win, could win, should win and what should have been nominated.

Best Picture:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up in the Air
Should Have Been Nominated: (500) Days of Summer, A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Director:
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Could Win: James Cameron, Avatar
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: Rian Johnson, The Brothers Bloom; Lone Scherfig, An Education; Spike Jonze, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Lead Actor:
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Could Win: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Colin Firth, A Single Man
Should Have Been Nominated: Joseph Gordon-Levitt, (500) Days of Summer; Michael Stuhlbarg, A Serious Man; Ben Whishaw, Bright Star

Best Lead Actress:
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Could Win: Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Should Have Been Nominated: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star; Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones; Maya Rudolph, Away We Go

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Could Win: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Bucemi, The Messenger; Rupert Friend, The Young Victoria; Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Could Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Should Win: Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Should Have Been Nominated: Marion Cotillard, Nine; Rose McIver, The Lovely Bones; Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: (500) Days of Summer, Bright Star, The Brothers Bloom

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Up in the Air
Could Win:Precious
Should Win: Up in the Air
Should Have Been Nominated: A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are, Whip It!

Best Animated Feature:
Will Win: Up
Could Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Should Have Been Nominated: Ponyo

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: The Cove
Could Win: Which Way Home
Should Win: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Every Little Step

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Un Prophete
Could Win: Los Secreto de Sus Ojos
Should Win: N/A
Should Have Been Nominated: Rudo y Cursi

Best Art Direction:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been Nominated: A Serious Man, A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: Bright Star, A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Costume Design:
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Could Win: Nine
Should Win: Bright Star
Should Have Been Nominated: (500) Days of Summer, An Education, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Film Editing:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: (500) Days of Summer, Up in the Air, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Makeup:
Will Win: Star Trek
Could Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: The Young Victoria
Should Have Been Nominated: Bright Star, District 9, Whip It!

Best Original Score:
Will Win: Up
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up
Should Have Been Nominated: Bright Star, A Single Man, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Original Song:
Will Win: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Could Win: "Take It All," Nine
Should Win: "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Should Have Been Nominated: "All is Love," Where the Wild Things Are; "Help Yourself," Up in the Air; "Smoke Without Fire," An Education

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar
Should Win: Star Trek
Should Have Been Nominated: Crazy Heart, Up in the Air, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Have Been Nominated: District 9, Where the Wild Things Are, Whip It!

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: District 9
Should Win: Avatar
Should Have Been Nominated: Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Lovely Bones, Where the Wild Things Are

Best Animated Short:
Will Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Could Win: Logorama

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Could Win: Music by Prudence

Best Live-Action Short:
Will Win: Miracle Fish
Could Win: The New Tenants