Best Picture:
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
I'm sold on Milk, The Dark Knight and Revolutionary Road. Even with its late release date, it feels like The Reader is baity enough to pimp its way to the top. And it looks like Slumdog Millionaire is going to be the crowdpleaser of the bunch.
Best Director:
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
I do think that it is still possible for the lineup to be five for five, but for now, I'll keep Danny Boyle out. There is always a "what the fuck?" nominee in Best Director and for now, I'll say their love of The Clint will be the fifth one. Arguments could be made for Steven Soderbergh, David Fincher and Mike Leigh for that spot as well.
Best Lead Actor:
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
I'd be surprised, right now, if Penn and Langella aren't in the final lineup. I think the critics are going to save Jenkins and the ones who don't will be pimping Rourke (although he may be his own worst enemy in the campaign). Going with The Clint for the last spot because Changeling was a dud, but they'll still find a way to give him some love.
Best Lead Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Even if their films bomb, I feel safe predicting Streep and Winslet. Which leaves six women fighting for three spots. Three will be happy, three will not. Let's discount them first. Angelina Jolie had a strong shot of coming back with the combination of not being nodded in a while and failing to get in last year, but her film was met with such a muted response that even those reviews that say she will get in, say it because they expect to fall for the histrionics. Michelle Williams will probably miss because Wendy and Lucy looks to be very small and indie, but there might be some sympathy going in her direction. That leaves Hathaway, Hawkins, Melissa Leo and Scott Thomas. I decided to keep Leo out (and I've flipping her every other time) because Sony Pictures Classic is pimping her, Hathaway AND Scott Thomas. One's gotta give. I feel like they'll spend most of their time with Hathaway because it's their strongest shot at much more nominations and then give Scott Thomas the second most attention since she's a previous nominee. And since Ebert is pushing all by himself for Hawkins, that will give her the edge over Leo, who may have to rely on her previous co-stars for help (I'm looking at you Benicio, Sean and Naomi).
Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
So we all know Ledger's in, but after that, it's anyone's game. I'm going with the two men from Milk because I feel like it will be more of a acknowledgement to the actors for their work overall this year (Franco with Pineapple Express and Brolin with W and last year's Best Picture winner, No Country for Old Men). Same thing with Downey Jr., who seems to have a lot of supporters in his corner. That leaves one spot open and it will probably go to a relatively unknown to regular moviegoers. I'm leaning towards Shannon because of the film's overall potential to lead the nods, but I could see Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire), Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married) or David Kross (The Reader) in that spot. And I refuse to predict PSH.
Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Winslet for the double nod? I think this one might be safer, but I think she will get both and end up winning this one. Bates is very respected within the Academy, not just the industry, so that seems safe too. Cruz got the reviews and the starlet status to get her in, while Davis and DeWitt will likely split the precursors.
The Charts:
Best Picture:
1. Milk (Gus Van Sant, Focus Features) [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
2. The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan, Warner Bros.) [8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 7, 4, 4, 3]
3. Revolutionary Road (Sam Mendes, Paramount Vantage/Dreamworks) [3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2]
4. The Reader (Stephen Daldry, The Weinstein Company) [N, 6, 6, 6, 9, 7, 6, 5]
5. Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle, Fox Searchlight) [N, 16, 16, 13, 9, 6]
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6. Rachel Getting Married (Jonathan Demme, Sony Pictures Classic) [9, 15, 16, 13, 9, 4, 3, 3, 4]
7. Doubt (John Patrick Shanley, Miramax) [6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 6, 6, 10, 7]
8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher, Paramount) [15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 10, 9, 7, 8]
9. Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood, Warner Bros.) [N, 16, 11, 9]
10. The Wrestler (Darren Aronofsky, Fox Searchlight) [N, 14, 14, 14, 10, 12, 10]
11. Happy Go Lucky (Mike Leigh, Miramax) [14, 9, 9, 9, 12, 12, 12, 16, 14]
12. Australia (Baz Luhrmann, 20th Century Fox) [13, 10, 11, 10, 11, 11, 8, 8, 12]
13. The Visitor (Tom McCarthy, Overture Films) [16, 16, 15, 15, 18, 18, 20, 13, 15]
14. Frost/Nixon (Ron Howard, Universal) [4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, 5, 11]
15. Wall E (Andrew Stanton, Pixar/Disney) [11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 17, 17, 15, 13]
16. Defiance (Ed Zwick, Paramount Vantage) [2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 8, 11, 17, 17]
17. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Alen, The Weinstein Company) [17, 17, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 19]
18. Synecdoche, New York (Charlie Kauffman, Sony Pictures Classic) [N, 15, 14, 16]
19. W. (Oliver Stone, Lionsgate) [20, 20, 20, 19, 13, 13, 18, 20, 20]
20. Changeling (Clint Eastwood, Universal) [7, 7, 10, 11, 15, 15, 14, 18, 18]
Best Director:
1. Gus Van Sant, Milk [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
2. Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight [4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 2]
3. Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road [5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3]
4. Stephen Daldry, The Reader [N, 9, 9, 7, 10, 9, 9, 7]
5. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino [N, 12, 5, 5]
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6. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire [N, 16, 16, 10, 10, 9]
7. Steven Soderbergh, Che/The Argentine/Guerilla [14, 12, 12, 5, 10, 7, 5, 7, 8]
8. Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married [12, 16, 19, 13, 6, 5, 4, 4, 4]
9. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [9, 14, 13, 12, 11, 9, 8, 6, 6]
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler [N, 16, 15, 11, 11, 11, 10]
11. Mike Leigh, Happy Go Lucky [10, 9, 8, 11, 13, 15, 16, 15, 14]
12. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt [11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 12]
13. Baz Luhrmann, Australia [13, 10, 10, 10, 12, 12, 7, 8, 11]
14. Tom McCarthy, The Visitor [20, 20, 16, 18, 19, 19, 19, 13, 15]
15. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 6, 12, 13]
16. Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona [16, 13, 15, 15, 18, 18, 18, 16, 16]
17. Charlie Kauffman, Synecdoche, New York [N, 15, 18, 17]
18. Oliver Stone, W. [19, 19, 17, 19, 17, 17, 20, 20, 20]
19. Clint Eastwood, Changeling [3, 3, 4, 6, 9, 8, 13, 17, 18]
20. Ed Zwick, Defiance [6, 6, 7, 8, 8, 13, 17, 19, 19]
Best Lead Actor:
1. Sean Penn, Milk [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
2. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2]
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino [N, 17, 17, 12, 3, 3]
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor [4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 4]
5. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler [N, 18, 18, 9, 8, 7, 6, 7, 5]
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6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road [6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6, 6]
7. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [13, 14, 12, 12, 12, 11, 8, 9, 7]
8. Josh Brolin, W. [12, 13, 14, 17, 16, 16, 9, 8, 8]
9. Benicio del Toro, Che/The Argentine/Guerilla [3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 9]
10. Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance, Harvey [N, 16, 11, 11]
11. Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon [N, 9, 8, 7, 10, 10]
12. Hugh Jackman, Australia [8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 10, 11, 15, 12]
13. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York [N, 18, 18, 15, 13, 13]
14. Will Smith, Seven Pounds [7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 9, 13, 16, 14]
15. Daniel Craig, Defiance [10, 10, 13, 15, 19, 19, 19, 19, 15]
Best Lead Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, Doubt [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
2. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road [4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2]
3. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married [5, 7, 7, 7, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3]
4. Kristen Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long [N, 15, 12, 8, 6, 6, 6, 6, 4]
5. Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky [3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 7, 7, 7, 7]
*****************************
6. Melissa Leo, Frozen River [6, 5, 5, 5, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5]
7. Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy [N, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8]
8. Angelina Jolie, Changeling [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6]
9. Kate Beckinsale, Nothing But the Truth [7, 8, 8, 9, 10, 9, 9, 9, 9]
10. Nicole Kidman, Australia [8, 13, 10, 10, 12, 12, 11, 11, 10]
11. Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [N, 16, 16, 13, 15, 16, 16, 12, 11]
12. Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey [N, 14, 12]
13. Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia [13, 17, 18, 18, 18, 17, 17, 15, 13]
14. Penélope Cruz, Elegy [12, 11, 11, 14, 19, 13, 12, 13, 14]
15. Sophie Okonedo, Skin [10, 10, 14, 15, 17, 19, 19, 20, 15]
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight [2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1]
2. Josh Brolin, Milk [1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2]
3. Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder [N, 10, 7, 5]
4. James Franco, Milk [N, 14, 8, 6, 5, 5, 3]
5. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road [8, 8, 10, 5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4]
******************************
6. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt [N, 8, 6, 6]
7. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire [N, 8, 8]
8. Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married [N, 14, 15, 6, 5, 4, 4, 7]
9. David Kross, The Reader [N, 12]
10. Ralph Fiennes, The Reader [N, 9]
11. Emile Hirsch, Milk [11, 10, 11, 10, 10, 9, 9, 11, 11]
12. Alan Alda, Nothing But the Truth [15, 19, 19, 20, 20, 14, 6, 9, 10]
13. Demian Bichir, Che/The Argentine/Guerilla [18, 14, 13, 13, 14, 10, 7, 10, 13]
14. Aaron Eckhart, The Dark Knight [N, 11, 12, 14]
15. Jared Harris, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [N, 15]
16. Jason Flemyng, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [N, 13, 16]
17. Liev Schreiber, Defiance [5, 5, 5, 4, 5, 8, 14, 14, 17]
18. Jamie Bell, Defiance [10, 9, 9, 9, 13, 11, 13, 16, 18]
19. Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona [N, 11, 15, 17, 18, 19, 19, 19, 19]
20. John Malkovich, Changeling [6, 6, 6, 11, 7, 7, 12, 17, 20]
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Viola Davis, Doubt [3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1]
2. Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona [2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2]
3. Kate Winslet, The Reader [N, 8, 8, 8, 11, 8, 5, 4]
4. Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3]
5. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married [N, 16, 16, 16, 15, 5, 4, 4, 5]
***************************
6. Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married [13, 10, 10, 12, 12, 4, 5, 7, 6]
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [16, 13, 11, 11, 11, 13, 11, 10, 7]
8. Amy Adams, Doubt [12, 12, 12, 13, 13, 14, 10, 8, 10]
9. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler [N, 10, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9]
10. Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona [N, 7, 7, 7, 5, 7, 6, 6, 8]
11. Elsa Zylberstein, I've Loved You So Long [N, 14, 11]
12. Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth [4, 4, 4, 4, 7, 8, 7, 11, 12]
13. Evan Rachel Wood, The Wrestler [N, 12, 13]
14. Alison Pill, Milk [N, 17]
15. Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire [N, 16]
16. Elizabeth Banks, W. [N, 13, 16, 18]
17. Michelle Williams, Synecdoche, New York [N, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, 15, 15]
18. Samantha Morton, Synecdoche, New York [N, 9, 9, 10, 12, 12, 13, 14]
19. Rosario Dawson, Seven Pounds [10, 15, 15, R, 16, 16, 14, 17, 19]
20. Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited [7, 8, 13, 17, 17, 17, 18, 20, 20]
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