Saturday, July 7, 2012

Emmy Thoughts #1...Supporting Actor-Drama

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama seems to be a tough race, mostly because we could see big shakeups in the category. Looking at the actual ballot, I've whittled down the list to the following contenders.

Looking Good:
Peter Dinkalge, Game of Thrones
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
John Slattery, Mad Men

Dinklage and Paul are the two previous winners in this category and both are riding high on terrific seasons of their shows. The argument could have been made for both to be in the lead categories, but for now, they are probably the closest ones to be locked in the category. Then you have Slattery, who did more this season than he has since season one. I don't see him getting booted any time soon.

Duking It Out:
Josh Charles, The Good Wife
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Michael Pitt, Boardwalk Empire

Then you have six guys trying to get into the last three spots. Charles and Cumming were a bit sidelined this season (Margulies really carried the third season, with help from the guests), so both could easily be dropped. Esposito really had a buzzed season, especially with the last few episodes focusing on his past and the outcome of his war with Walt. Kartheiser was given outstanding material, and the love for the show grows each year. Patinkin is a past winner with a new show that might give the veteran shows a run for their money. Finally, there's Pitt who will be depending a lot on how well his show does overall, and if voters care to give it more acting nominations.

Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age
Walton Goggins, Justified
John Goodman, Damages
Neal McDonough, Justified
Nick Nolte, Luck

Braugher is Emmy catnip, but the show was cancelled a whole year ago and they only are eligible on a technicality. Goggins got in last year, but the buzz seems to have moved to McDonough, a dependable character actor, who should have won this category for 2002's Boomtown. Another Emmy favorite is Goodman, although I have a feeling his show is not going to do as well this year. Lastly, Nolte received an Oscar nod this year, which could put him into the race for HBO's one season show.

Dylan Baker, Damages
Johnathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey
Jared Harris, Mad Men
Jack Huston, Boardwalk Empire
Chris Noth, The Good Wife

Baker really chewed it up, but Goodman will be the likelier of the two. Banks getting in would mean the show is winning Drama Series, ditto if either Carter or Coyle get in (although I would bet on the ladies before the men). Harris would be deserving, although not at the expense of either Slattery or Kartheiser and Huston really elevated the show whenever he was on screen (and it would be a hoot to see him get in along with another longshot, his aunt Anjelica). It's pretty clear the Emmys hate Mr. Big/Det. Logan/Peter Florrick, so it's probably never going to happen for Noth.

Final Predictions:
Peter Dinkalge, Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
John Slattery, Mad Men

Early Prediction for the Win:
This category hasn't seen a repeat winner since Ray Walston won for Picket Fences in 1995 and 1996. I don't see that changing, so I think it could be Esposito or Kartheiser...provided they actually get the nomination.

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